Draft Nuggets 2015: Entry #14
By Jeff Bowers of youtube.com/TheSportsNarrative
Positional Breakdowns: Edge Rushers
The most valuable and important positions on any football team (in no particular order) are quarterback, left tackle and pass rushers. History has shown that teams that are equipped as these positions have a chance to win the Super Bowl every year. And while successful QBs and LTs generally have the same attributes that have always had, pass rushers come in all shapes and sizes. Therefore, as opposed to trying to thread the needle between what is a defensive end versus an outside linebacker, I have just grouped all the players into one category: Edge Rushers. Of course, some players are more likely to thrive in a different system (see Jerry Hughes in Buffalo) and that will be noted in their profile. Here is an overall look at the edge rushers available in this draft as I would order them on my big board.
1. Vic Beasley, Clemson, 6’3” 246lbs, 40 Time 4.53 Bench 35 – After returning for his senior season, Beasley is easily the most refined and arguably the most explosive edge rusher in this class. Though there is many comparison to Von Miller given their same size/speed statistics, he doesn’t quite have the strength or anchor of Miller. However, Beasley would be best served in that same hybrid DE/OLB position Denver uses with Miller and has become very popular around the league. Although he needs a little refinement vs the run on pursuit angles and tackling, Beasley is perhaps the safest and most solid pass rusher in this draft.
Prediction: Top 5
2. Dante Fowler Jr, Florida, 6’3″ 261lbs, 40 Time 4.60 Bench 19 – Fowler’s biggest asset might be his versatility. Whether in a 2 or 3 point stance, rushing the QB, tracking down a ball carrier or dropping into coverage, Fowler moves with a fluidity and explosiveness that has coaches drooling. He has a well built frame that allows him to add or subtract weight easily to fill any need his DC would need. However as a jack-of-all-trades, Fowler is still raw in his pass rush skills and needs to develop further to become a truly elite force in the NFL. My only hesitation on Fowler is the suspect history of Florida DEs at the next level, especially given he only had 5.5 sacks last year. I hope Fowler can break the trend and be really special, but that concern puts him #2 on my board.
Prediction: Top 10
3. Alvin “Bud” Dupree, Kentucky, 6’4″ 269lbs, 40 Time 4.56, Bench NA – Dupree is a plus character guy who has relied on his freakish athleticism for most of his football life. But to reach his potential in the NFL (which is high), Dupree will need a shrewd DC who can turn his athleticism into football playmaking. Dupree has a chiseled frame and could play as a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB with strength to set the edge in the run game or the speed to cover a TE or RB in space (with his basketball background). The only knocks on Dupree is his lack of innate instincts and his need to get stronger, both things that can be fixed. Overall, Dupree is an underrated prospect that will make a solid coaching staff like Baltimore or New England look like geniuses again.
Prediction: Top 15
4. Shane Ray, Missouri, 6’3″ 245lbs, 40 Time 4.68 Bench 21 – Ray has an exceptional initial burst off the snap and a great motor that he used to cause havoc for opponents in college. However, the rest of his game makes me wonder why he is a lock for the top 10 in most mock drafts. It was said he ran a 4.4 in the forty, yet his pro day resulted in a 4.68. He is a bit of a tweener as his size seems only fit to be an OLB but his stiffness in space makes him better as a DE. Ray must work much harder to get stronger and disengage from blockers in the run game to be more than a pass rush specialist. Overall, Ray reminds me a bit of Dee Ford from Auburn in last year’s draft (but is better) and therefore falls in that same general range.
Projection: Top 25
5. Randy Gregory, Nebraska, 6’5″ 235lbs, 40 Time 4.64 Bench 24 – Gregory looks really impressive on tape where his long, lanky frame made plays all over the field. But questions about his health and his off-field choices abound. At only 235 lbs and difficulties adding more weight are reminiscent of Dion Jordan out of Oregon a few years ago who has struggled to see the field after being the #3 in 2013. Also, a positive test for pot at the Combine and subsequent admission by Gregory that he really likes weed is quite troubling. Someone will take a chance on Gregory in round 1 and hope he can turn into Justin Houston (another player with a positive test at the Combine) but it seems risky.
Projection: 1st round
6. Eli Harold, Virginia Tech, 6’3″ 247lbs, 40 Time 4.60 Bench 24 – Harold was used primarily as a pure pass rusher at Virginia but will likely play OLB in a 3-4 in the NFL. And that’s where the problems arise as his body appears maxed out weight wise, he has very little experience dropping into coverage and his instincts to diagnose plays need work. When asked to go get the QB, Harold’s natural bend and strength shine but in any other role he will be developmental. As pass rushing skill is at such a premium Harold will likely hear his name called late on Day 1 or early on Day 2.
Prediction: 1st/2nd
7. Arik Armstead, Oregon, 6’7″ 292lbs, 40 Time 5.10 Bench 24 – Armstead is a prototypical 5 technique in a 3-4 defense, though he would likely play DT in the Cowboys defense. Long arms and a solid anchor makes him excellent vs the run and he has shown flashes of dominance at Oregon. However, he is not a quick twitch athlete and provides little spark off the snap and can disappear for big swathes of games. Armstead will be in the first round purely on his size and potential, but I don’t know if he will emerge as a star in the NFL.
Projection: 1st/2nd
8. Owamgabe Odighizuwa, UCLA, 6’3″ 267lbs, 40 Time 4.62 Bench 25 – “Diggy” as he is known, is a versatile DE coming from the UCLA 3-4 where he played both 5 technique and OLB. He is strong vs the run and shows nice bend in his pass rush, though he is not as explosive as one might on the edge. He really seems like a RDE who could really compliment a #1 pass rusher and be stout against the run in a 4-3 or hybrid 3-4. Only red flags are medical, as 2 surgeries to resurface his hips cost him the 2013 and might be a ticking time bomb throughout his career. While not a star, Odighizuwa will be a solid piece on a good team for some time
Projection: 1st/2nd
9. Preston Smith, Mississippi State, 6’5″ 271lbs 40 Time 4.74 Bench 24 – After all the players with plus pass rushing skills are selected, the defensive end class turns into solid contributors with a well rounded game. That perfectly describes Smith, who looks like a prototypical DE in a 4-3 but has shown the versatility to play upright in space or could slide inside to DT on passing downs. While not a burner, Smith’s long arms can keep blockers at bay to hold his own or get push on the pocket. Overall, Smith is another solid contributor type that is more steak than sizzle, though his only red flag have to do with endurance.
Prediction: 2nd round
10. Nate Orchard, Utah, 6’3″, 250lbs, 40 Time 4.80 Bench 23 – Orchard was massively productive in college at Utah, racking up 18.5 sacks last year with his burst from the edge and tenacious motor. Did much better shedding blocks as a senior and diagnosing plays. However, his size could dictate a move to OLB in the NFL and his stiffness in space will become more apparent. The Combine questions his pop on tape with a below average 40 and struggles in the 3 cone drills. Orchard might become a pass rush specialist or may take a few years to find his role in the NFL.
Prediction: 2nd round
11. Danielle Hunter, LSU, 6’5″ 252lbs, 40 Time 4.57 Bench 25 – 2nd/3rd
12. Mario Edwards Jr, Florida State, 6’3″ 279lbs, 40 Time 4.84 Bench 32 – 2nd/3rd
13. Za’Darius Smith, Kentucky, 6’4″ 274lbs 40 Time 4.73 Bench 23 – 3rd round
14. Hau’oli Kikaha, Washington, 6’2″ 253lbs, 40 Time 4.9 Bench 20 – 3rd round
15. Trey Flowers, Arkansas, 6’2″ 266lbs, 40 Time 4.83 Bench 28 – 3rd/4th
16. David Tull, Chattanooga, 6’2″ 246lbs, 40 Time 4.57 Bench 26 – 3rd/4th
17. Markus Golden, Missouri, 6’2″ 260lbs 40 Time 4.77 Bench 17 – 4th round
18. Henry Anderson, Stanford, 6’6″ 294lbs 40 Time 4.97 Bench 23 – 4th round
19. Anthony Chickillo, Miami, 6’3″ 267lbs 40 Time 4.79 Bench 27 – 4th round
20. Cedric Reed, Texas, 6’5″ 269lbs, 40 Time NA Bench 22 – 4th/5th