Draft Nuggets 2014: Entry #10
By Jeff Bowers of www.thedraftnarrative.com
Twitter: @sportsnarrative
Dallas Cowboys Vertical Drafting Options:
In an ideal world, a team can enter into the draft with no major holes to fill and can take the best player available regardless of position in each round. But when you are up against the cap or have drafted poorly (or both as with the Dallas Cowboys), that is probably not an option. So in order to address all a team’s needs without reaching, a team must look at the draft in a different way. This methodology I have termed “Vertical Drafting” because each round’s choices have an effect on the subsequent rounds, thus creating a draft strategy seeking the value positions in each round and adjusting accordingly.
For example, given the Cowboys inability to add significant free agents they should enter the draft with primary needs at DT (Defensive Tackle), FS (Free Safety), OLB (Outside Linebacker) and DE (Defensive End) (depending on the decision made on DeMarcus Ware). They also have secondary needs at OG (Offensive Guard), RB (Running Back), QB (Quarterback) and WR (Wide Receiver). Primary needs are positions that could use a starter or significant contributor. Secondary Needs are positions that could be addressed if the value of the pick is too great to pass on. With that set up, here’s a look at some of the options at those positions and a recommendation for the best way to emerge from draft day with a quality crop of new talent.
Round 1:
Players Available:
Defensive Tackle: Aaron Donald – Pitt
Defensive End: Anthony Barr UCLA, Kony Ealy – Mizzou
Safety: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – Alabama, Calvin Pryor – Louisville
Linebacker: CJ Mosley – Alabama, Ryan Shazier – Ohio St
Wildcard: WR Mike Evans – Texas A&M, G/T Zach Martin – Notre Dame, Trade Down
Analysis:
This first pick is a no-brainer if all of these players are available. Aaron Donald is an ideal fit as a 3 technique in the Cowboys 4-3. However, Donald’s impressive performance throughout the draft process may have him off the board by the time Dallas drafts at #16, namely by the Giants, Bears or some other team jumping ahead of Dallas. Unfortunately, due to the amount of needs Dallas has they cannot afford to package picks to move up to nab Donald. Of note, Tim Jernigan is not on this list as, I believe, the Cowboys view him as a 1 tech much like Shariff Floyd in the 2013 draft and is probably not an option for them in round 1.
If Donald is gone, the Cowboys will face a dilemma. Looking at the vertical drafting board, there are good DTs to be had in later rounds so going a different direction is ok. The vibe from Valley Ranch seems to be that Safety is not as high a priority and thus not likely an option in round 1, eliminating Clinton-Dix and Pryor.
The linebacker position could also be addressed here, but Mosley has some durability red flags that could be a problem given that the Cowboys LB core is already a fragile bunch. Shazier had an outstanding Pro Day and is starting to rise into this area, but would still be a slight reach.
Barr is a very intriguing option if he slides as some are projecting. He could play either as a DE or as a Strong side LB depending on the future of Ware and his big cap number. Ealy is also rated in this area, but he really lacks the explosiveness off the edge needed to replace Ware and might be better as a 3-4 DE or bulking up a little.
There is a few wildcards in this mix, as almost always when Jerry’s in the draft room. First is the 6’4” Aggie WR Mike Evans. Dallas would be very tempted to pair him with Dez on the outside. Second is the G/T Zach Martin, further solidifying the O-line but that seems un-Jerry-like. Finally is the option of trading down. That will be discussed below.
Recommendation:
If Donald’s there, he’s the pick. If he isn’t and Barr is available, I would be very tempted to take that value at 16. But if both are gone and Dallas could drop into the 20’s for an extra third rounder, that might be the value on the board.
Round 2:
Players Available:
Defensive Tackle: Will Sutton – ASU, Dominique Easley – Florida
Saftey: LaMarcus Joyner – FSU, Deone Bucannon – Wash St
Defensive End: Kareem Martin – UNC, Jeremiah Attaochu – GT
Linebacker: Carl Bradford – ASU, Christian Jones – FSU
Wildcard: G Gabe Jackson – Miss St, G/T Brandon Thomas – Clemson, QB Jimmy Garoppolo – E Illinois
Analysis:
Using the Vertical Drafting method, the value at this position is really in the guard position but that isn’t a primary need for Dallas. However taking Jackson or Thomas at this pick would not upset me.
If they miss out on Donald, they may be forced into one of the DTs as the value going into later rounds is not quite starting caliber. Sutton has concerns about his size, as his best years in college were playing at 267lbs. Easley is a first round talent except for the torn ACLs suffered in both knees at Florida. But given the Cowboys “luck” with drafting injured players in round 2, Easley could be a great value here.
I love the game of LaMarcus Joyner, who played both nickel CB and FS in college, but his 5’8” height might turn the Cowboys away. Bucannon is a nice ball-hawking SS but the Cowboys already have 2 starting SS on the roster in Church and Wilcox.
Kareem Martin is still very raw and, like Ealy, better suited as a base LE not the pass rusher they would need to replace Ware. Attaochu is better suited at DE than OLB and might be too light for the 4-3 as an every-down guy.
The OLBs in round 2 are both very interesting and good fits. Bradford is an ideal Strong-Side LB in this scheme with some pass rushing skills. His only issue is his limited athleticism sometimes gets him swallowed up in run defense. Jones played both OLB and ILB at FSU and would allow Dallas to shuffle their linebackers around if so needed.
The wildcard here depends on the retirement of Kyle Orton. If Orton opts to hang it up, Dallas would need a solid backup immediately, like Jimmy Garoppolo out of Eastern Illinois. That is unlikely but possible.
Recommendation:
Since I’m beginning to feel like Donald might not make it to Dallas at 16, I think DT is the call here. If the medicals check out, I like Easley but Sutton might be the safer play. If somehow Dallas can retain Hatcher or sign another pick, I would take the value either at Guard or Linebacker.
Round 3:
Players Available:
Linebacker: Telvin Smith – FSU, Christian Kirksey – Iowa
Safety: Terrence Brooks – FSU, Dion Bailey – USC
Defensive Tackle: Kelcy Quarles – So Car, Ego Ferguson – LSU
Defensive End: Marcus Smith – L’ville, Jackson Jeffcoat – Texas
Wildcard: G Cyril Richardson – Baylor, G David Yankey – Stanford
Analysis:
The value here in round three is really at the LB and S spot. If Dallas can manage to grab a quality DT and a value pick in rounds 1 and 2, I would try to go S in the third and LB in the fourth.
I have to say after the top 3 safeties on the board, I really like the game of Terrence Brooks. He is a classic FS with cover skills and big hitting. The only issue with him might be being off the board prior to the Cowboys pick at #78. Bailey is also dynamic athlete, but needs work refining his techniques in the pros.
The linebackers in this tier are both weak-side LB types with solid cover skills, allowing Dallas to move Bruce Carter to the strong-side. Telvin Smith is a solid playmaker, but at less than 220lbs might not stand up to the punishment in the NFL. Kirksey is a lanky cover LB ideal for the 4-3 with a bit of seasoning.
Hopefully by round 3 Dallas has addressed the DT position, but if not Quarles and Ferguson are solid rotation guys. Quarles is difficult to scout as he played on a line with Clowney drawing a lot of attention. Ferguson, too, was surrounded by several other very talented players on that Tigers D and might be “just a guy” in the pros.
The Defensive Ends on this talent tier are not ideal fits for the Dallas scheme. Marcus Smith is a do-everything guy from Louisville and could be a hidden gem in the third round. Jeffcoat, though very athletic, will likely be best served as an OLB in a 3-4.
The wildcard in round 3 is again the great value at the guard position. Richardson and Yankey both came into the draft process with high second round grades and have slid due to questionable measureables. If Dallas gets lucky in the first 2 rounds or trades down for an extra third, targeting a guard would be an excellent choice.
Round 4:
Players Available:
Linebacker: Jordan Tripp – Montana, Jordan Zumwalt – UCLA
Defensive Ends: Will Clarke – WVA, Chris Smith – Arkansas
Defensive Tackle: George Uko – USC, Caraun Reid – Princeton
Safetiy: Ed Reynolds – Stanford, Ahmad Dixon – Baylor
Wildcard: G Jon Halapio – Florida, RB or QB
Analysis:
The best value for the Cowboys need set in round 4 is at OLB and DE. I’m not really crazy about the safeties this far (as I’m not sure you are improving on what is already on the roster) or the DTs.
Both LBs in this area have their warts (Tripp is a little to finesse, Zumwalt a little too undisciplined), but both could find their way into a prominent role very early in their career. If Dallas refrains from taking LB in the previous 3 rounds, they will still get great value here.
The DE prospects are a study in opposites. Clarke is a 6’6” DE who needs to learn to use his height, while Chris Smith is a 6’1” squatty guy with impressive pass rush ability. Both would be incredible value in round 4 and instantly in the rotation.
Uko and Reid are guys filled with untapped potential that would be nice rotational DTs but can’t be relied on to start from day 1.
The safeties in round four, Reynolds and Dixon, have inconsistencies in their games and raise big question marks on their prospects as starters.
The Wildcard options in round 4 include a streetfighter guard in Halapio and then the prospect of adding a skill position guy, be it RB, WR or even a backup QB. With tons of depth in both positions, these areas should not be ignored, but also not forced.
Recommendation:
By the time round 4 comes along, grabbing a year one contributor or even a starter can be difficult. The value here is at OLB and DE, so even if Ware is retained it could be a fabulous place to find his future replacement. I know the Cowboys have shown interest in Chris Smith, so look for that to be a strong possibility.
Round 5 and Beyond:
Recommendations:
Rounds 5-7 are a great place to grab developmental talent for the future. I would start with getting a young quarterback in the pipeline in round 5, like David Fales of San Jose State or Brent Smith or Wyoming. In addition, the running back and wide receiver crops in the 2014 draft are very rich and starters may be found even as undrafted free agents. RB Jerick McKinnon from Georgia Southern, WR Jeff Janis of Saginaw Valley or DE Larry Webster of Lindenwood would all be great finds in the later rounds.