Draft Nuggets 2014: Entry #6
By Jeff Bowers of www.thedraftnarrative.com
Twitter: @sportsnarrative
Mock Draft 1.0
Now that the season is finally concluded with the Seattle Seahawks crowned as the champs, the final draft order is set. Well, almost. The Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens finished with identical records and will flip a coin at the Scouting Combine on February 20th to determine who has pick 16 and 17. Though it may be trivial, the Cowboys may wish to lose the toss as pick #17 has proven fairly “lucky” in the past, producing Emmitt Smith, Mel Renfro, Kevin Smith and Kevin Brooks the four times they picked 17th. With that in mind, here is my first mock draft of the season. So much is likely to change between now and May 8th with free agency and trades still to go, but this is a good way to look at team needs and prospects as they stand going into the Combine in an entertaining way.
Round 1
If the Texans had their choice, I think they’d prefer to take Clowney with the first pick. However, the need for a QB is too strong to ignore or wait. I expect an impressive showing at the Combine will propel l Bortles to the top of the QB class and thus down to Houston
I really think Jake Matthews is the better OT prospect, but the Rams will likely fall in love with Robinson’s size and run blocking. Just like last season when Eric Fisher leapt over Luke Joeckel in the evaluation process, Robinson, with a nice Combine, could do the same thing.
The Jaguars, despite a desperate need for a signal caller, will be thrilled to get the best player in this draft with the #3 pick. If the Jags can keep Clowney motivated, he could transform the Two-toned Helmets on defense next season.
Despite the uproar in the front office, the Browns are still likely to stick to the plan of drafting Johnny Football. New GM Ray Farmer might attempt to trade up, especially if Bortles gets by the Texans, but will likely stay and take a guy that can bring some positive attention to this woeful franchise.
Like the Jaguars, the Raiders take the best player available despite a big need at QB. Whether they draft one later or sign a veteran, any Raiders QB will be thrilled to have Watkins lined up out wide.
While the Falcons might be very tempted to draft a pass rusher like Khalil Mack, their biggest need really is on their O-line and having Matthews fall to them is fantastic. The Falcons learned last year low going cheap up front can cost you an entire season.
New HC Lovie Smith will need to put some teeth in that defense and adding Mack will do just that. With great versatility, Mack can move all over the defense and get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
New OC Norv Turner has already indicated the Vikings will be looking for a QB and having Bridgewater fall to them is a dream. Bridgewater is the most polished and NFL-ready QB in this class, but concerns about his slight frame and lack of “wow” factor will likely have him slip a little.
One of the things I love about the Bills organization is they almost always tip their hand as to their draft pick. However, since so few major media outlets pay attention to Buffalo it often gets missed. The Bills have mentioned several times finding a reliable target for young EJ Manual and Ebron looks like he might be a star.
Most Big Boards right now have Dennard over Gilbert in the CB rankings. However, I think Gilbert will have better measurables (namely 40 time) and might leap into the Top 10. Though the Lions also really want a WR to pair with Megatron, the WR crop in this draft is very deep and can be filled in round 2.
Barr was once thought to be a top 5 pick. But once scouts started carving up tape, issues with inexperience, technique and size all started Barr down the board. However, with the Titans converting to a 3-4 Barr will make a great pass-rushing OLB.
The Giants just love versatile offensive linemen and Martin fits that bill perfectly. Though his build might fit better as a guard in the pros, Martin showed enough agility and anchor to hold his own at LT at the Senior Bowl. Wherever he plays, Martin will be a nice addition to the Giants offensive line.
With two picks in the top half of the 1st round, the Rams can address both of their top needs without reaching. Clinton-Dix is a playmaking safety that the Rams secondary has lacked for some time.
The Bears defensive line got decimated with injuries last year. And now with their top DTs facing free agency, Chicago has a huge need up front of defense. Jernigan fits perfectly as a 3 technique in the Bears D.
Ike Taylor really struggled last year and the Steelers could find a clone of him in Dennard. A tough, physical corner accustomed to being on an island, Dennard might have a little Richard Sherman in him.
The Ravens and Joe Flacco really missed Anquan Bolding last year. Evans, a big 6’5” receiver with a tendency to bail out his QB, is exactly what this offense needs. However, if Evans runs a blazing 40 time he might not still be available by pick 16 or 17.
As we saw in the Superbowl, the key to the Tamp-2 defense is getting pressure on the QB without mush blitzing. Donald, though a little undersized, should be an instant starter at the 3 technique and fill the void left by free agent Jason Hatcher.
The Jets will be looking for any offensive weapon they can find to help young QB Geno Smith. Lee is a vertical threat and a great route runner that instantly become the best WR on the Jets roster.
The Dolphins need to completely revamp their offensive line at every position but center. Though Kouandjio may not be the best tackle prospect available, some red flags circling around other tackle prospects might have them go a different direction given the events of last season.
The Cardinals would have to be thrilled to find a QB at #20. Carr could be the target of teams that passed on QBs early to trade up and snag so the Cards will have to be vigilant to land him. With Carson Palmer nearing the end of his career, this would be a great situation for Carr to learn a season and not get thrown into the fire as his brother did.
BJ Raji is a free agent and might be better suited to play DE if he is retained. Nix can be a force in both run stopping and pass rushing. Though the Packers might have bigger needs in other areas, their front office is usually pretty good about taking the best player available.
The Eagles don’t want to go into this draft needing a safety because it is very likely Pryor will be gone before they pick with a good day at the Combine. Pryor is quickly rising up draft boards around the league due to his play-making and awareness.
This is another pick that I don’t really agree with but could see happening. Benjamin’s size and speed combination will have GMs around the league salivating. I’m not convinced about his route running or hands, but a really good Combine could change my mind.
This might be the first pick considered a “reach” by some. I like Roberson as the next best CB available over Verrett due to his size and ballhawking skills. The Bengals must greatly upgrade their secondary to make more of a playoff run.
The Dwight Freeney signing did not work out for the Bolts and they need a real upgrade on the pass rush. Ford shined at the Senior Bowl and has tremendous burst off the edge.
The other big needs for the Browns are all at positions of strength in this draft and could be filled in later rounds. Yankey is another outstanding guard from the linemen factory that is Stanford. The Browns use the pick they got for Trent Richardson to improve the blocking for a different RB.
Ealy could be a great fit for the Rob Ryan defense due to his flexibility of position. Though he played DE at Mizzou, some scouts think Ealy has the frame to add some weight and play DE in a 3-4 too. Wherever Ryan plays him, Ealy should thrive in New Orleans.
The Panthers have a number of big needs going into this offseason but getting more weapons for Cam must be near the top of that list. I have Beckham Jr as the 4th rated WR in this draft with his explosive playmaking ability.
Tom Brady would be thrilled to have Amaro to throw to next season. With the ability to play TE or WR, Amaro will fill the void left by Aaron Hernandez last year and get that Patriots offense back on track.
The Niners would love one of the top WRs or CBs to fall to this spot but that is pretty unlikely. I expect them to field offers for trades here too. But if they stand pat, Hageman would be yet another beast to add to that scary front 7, likely becoming a DE in their 3-4.
While Mosley is often rated much higher on many experts’ big boards, positions like inside linebackers often slip. The Broncos would love to plug Mosley into their defense next season despite needs at CB and S.
The Champs don’t have a lot of holes to fill, but an upgrade at guard could help their running game. Su’a-Filo is my top rated pure guard in this draft and should be a ten year starter in this league.
Team Needs: WR, G, TE, DL
Teams without 1st Round Picks
Washington Redskins
Team Needs: CB, WR, ILB, DL
Indianapolis Colts
Team Needs: CB, G, DE, S
Thoughts on Michael Sam:
Many people have speculated on the draft stock of Michael Sam since his revelation of bing the first openly gay player headed to the NFL. Here is the full scouting report on Sam from The Draft Narrative Scouting Guide. Accepting pre-orders now for a March 31st release date. Get yours TODAY!
Very productive senior season, leading the SEC in tackles for loss (18) and sacks (11.5). Voted consensus All-American in college football, unanimous first team All-SEC and co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC. Came out as openly gay to teammates prior to the 2013 season. Voted MVP of the Tigers by teammates. Did not stand out at the Senior Bowl playing as a LB. Born in Galveston, TX. Went to HS in Hitchcock, TX.
Strengths: Great burst off the line. Gets good leverage with a strong, compact frame. Shows a variety of pass rush moves and is a solid tackler. Good awareness and strength in run defense. Impressive motor in pursuit. A smart player with good awareness in coverage.
Weaknesses: Overaged (24). Short for a DE, creating issues with separating from blockers. Poor flexibility which really shows up in space. Only asked to drop into coverage on occasion, where flexibility also really hurt his effort. Classic college "tweener" type that is likely to be a rotational pass rush specialist in a 4-3 or a project 3-4 OLB.
Overall: Production and interviews likely to get Sam the benefit of the doubt over his size. The success of undersized DEs like Elvis Dumervil will greatly help his stock. Unknown factor is how the media scrutiny of the first openly gay NFL player will be received by front offices. On talent, Sam is a 3-4 round pick with the chance to become a quality starter in the right system and some strength and flexibility training.
Projection: 3-4 round