Draft Nuggets 2014: Entry #14
By Jeff Bowers of www.thedraftnarrative.com
Twitter: @sportsnarrative
Draft FAQs:
Every year, it seems, I get a variety of questions concerning the draft process and even more this year as the hype seems to be at an all-time high. So here’s a brief version of answers to the most common draft questions I get. For more answers, email me at [email protected] or reach me via twitter.
1. What’s the big deal about the draft anyway? Why has it gotten so big?
ANSWER: The draft has grown for a variety of reasons to become what it is today. The first is the growth of popularity of college football. Seeing how players transition from the college level to the NFL is a fascinating and inexact science that lends itself perfectly to sports talk radio and to countless hours on NFL Network programming. The second is the new economics in the NFL. With the rookie wage scale in place since the lockout and the salary cap rising significantly fueled by more and more TV money, the draft has become a very inexpensive option for getting your team better quickly and allows for a lot more trading options. Teams and GMs realize that you can no longer “buy” a championship via free agency and must learn to draft and draft well. Finally, the NFL itself has hyped the draft to an amazing level today. With major Hollywood movies, television shows and countless websites, the draft process now is keeping the NFL in the sports headlines year-round. No sport’s offseason gets more attention than that of the NFL.
2. Why is there so much variance in the opinion of certain players?
ANSWER: The reason for variance can be truly summed up with the adage of “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Each scout may have a different opinion of a certain prospect, based on his mechanics, people that he talks to and how a player may fit in their scheme or coaching staff. In addition, GMs and owners also may have different opinion of a player, based on his “wow” factor, fan feedback and loyalty to current players. And, of course, there is usually only one person who makes the actual final call on who a team may draft, be it the GM, Head Coach or Owner. Throw into that mix that each team has their own opinions and motivations and it is easy to see that consensus is not something easy to find at draft time.
3. What do teams look for in a prospect?
ANSWER: Of course it varies in specifics, but generally teams are looking for a sizzle over substance. It’s why every year we see QBs and pass rushers rise and positions like guards and linebackers slide. In addition, each team has their own set of “ideal” measurements or skills they seek when evaluating prospects, depending on their scheme or needs. But most importantly, teams are looking for a difference maker; someone who can mean an extra W on Sundays. That, of course, is not found in measurables but usually only on game film.
4. Why are certain trades or players rated as good or bad based on where they happen?
ANSWER: Back in the early 90’s, a value chart was created giving each draft choice a numeric value for the purposes of trades. For example, if the 16th pick is worth 1,000 points you would want the 26th pick (700 pts) and the 60th pick (300 pts) to get “equal” value for trading down. However, that chart can vary year to year based on the depth of the draft and where the talent tiers fall. Also, since the new rookie wage scale was enacted, that chart is a bit outdated and probably needs to be updated. But each team values their choices differently and almost no team makes a trade they think they will “lose.”
5. Why did the draft move to May? What about it moving around the country or expanding?
ANSWER: The draft moved to May this year because there were rumors of it moving to Boston and therefore Radio City Music Hall had a Rockettes show booked for that weekend. But with the release of the “Draft Day” movie, I believe the NFL wanted it to stay in NYC for continuity. I would not be surprised to see the draft move around from city to city starting next year. The popularity alone has outgrown the confines of Radio City and the demand for tickets to the draft is very high. However, the league offices are just down the road from RCMH so it might stay in place as well. As far as expanding to 4 nights, I would not be in favor. I think 3 is about right and usually only myself, Norm and really hardcore Draftniks are glued in for all 7 rounds.
6. How many hours of prep and scouting do you do for the draft?
ANSWER: Much to my wife’s chagrin, I probably spend 30+ hours a week from January 1 to May 8 working on draft items, be it watching film, talking to teams and prospects, traveling to the Shrine Game, Senior Bowl and the Combine, etc. And that’s not counting watching as many NFL and college games as I can during the season preparing for draft time. It is truly a passion of mine and takes a large amount of sacrifice and dedication. But I love it and wouldn’t have it any other way (except for making it a FT job!).
7. What are compensation picks and how are they rewarded?
ANSWER: Once the draft order is set, where the same tie-breakers used to determine playoff berths are used (including coin flips), the league awards compensatory picks based on the previous year’s free agent moves. Teams that lose significant players (based on the contracts awarded) are given compensation for losing those players. These picks cannot be traded and must be used by the team awarded the pick. These picks are usually no higher than a 3rd rounder, falling between the rounds.
8. What is the rookie wage scale and why do players seek to be drafted higher of lower?
ANSWER: The rookie wage scale slots in the general range of a player’s first contract, with the percentage increase year to year also negotiated. First round contract are guaranteed 4 year deal, with a team option for a 5th year. Beyond that, the contracts aren’t guaranteed and players can seek to get as much as they can in a signing bonus. In addition to the pride point of being a first rounder, the players also have financial motivation to get drafted as high as possible.
9. So what’s the deal with Johnny Manziel and Jadeveon Clowney? Why are they rising or sliding almost daily?
ANSWER: The perception of players rising or falling is really a perception of the media and their guessing of a team’s intentions. Manziel was an amazing college QB, but how that translates to the NFL is difficult to nail down. Very likely a team will have to cater their offense to Manziel’s strengths (mobility, improve skills) and weaknesses (size, mechanics) and some team’s refuse to do that. As for Clowney, his lack of scheme flexibility and character questions are the only things affecting his stock. By the numbers he is far and away the best prospect in this draft – but as a 4-3 DE and Houston plays a 3-4. And the questions about motor and desire seem overblown. But with the top prospects this time of year, it is sometimes more about what they can’t do than what they can.
10. Will Jerry trade up or down this year?
ANSWER: Given the fact that Jerry has traded in the 1st round 20 of his 25 years as GM, the odds say he will. However, I got the impression in the pre-draft press conference that the Cowboys haven’t talked to anyone in earnest about dealing down and it seems that is not the way they are leaning. Trading up in this year’s draft is insane given the depth of talent. With starting caliber players found well into round 3 this year, the player you trade up for better be worth 2 starters and that seems very unlikely. I think Jerry stays put at 16 and takes the best player available (I hope) or perhaps reaches for a defensive linemen (please no). For my final pick, check out my final mock draft appearing Thursday morning.