Draft Nuggets 2015: Entry #13
By Jeff Bowers of youtube.com/TheSportsNarrative
Twitter: @sportsnarrative
Positional Breakdowns: Running Backs
The pro days have mostly concluded, free agency has cooled off and it is time for front offices around the league to begin their strategies for the draft. This is when teams assess their needs versus their board, tentative trade deals (like the alleged one between Dallas and San Francisco in 2013) are hammered out, and the strength of positions become important. So we begin there by starting with the position of the Cowboys #1 need: Running Back. Here is my look at the RBs available and how I would order them on the board. Different teams (even different scouts) all evaluate players differently, valuing various traits and attributes as well as scheme fit so beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder but this will provide a glimpse into the evaluation process. In addition, these projections are based on pure talent, not the needs of teams or the possibility of a “run” at a position resulting in overdrafting players.
1. Todd Gurley, Georgia 6’1” 222lbs, 40 Time NA – If he was healthy, Gurley would easily break the streak of no RBs drafted in the first round and would likely crack the top 10. But an ACL tear in November of 2014 has clouded his draft status and even his availability for the start of the 2015 season. Other red flags include a 4 game suspension for autographs (prompting a new law in the state of Georgia) as well as lots of minor dings from taking a pounding in the rugged SEC over the past 3 years. 6However, he will likely still be drafted in the top half of round 1 purely on his size/speed combination and his productivity at Georgia. Gurley compares favorably to Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch with his aggressive running style, homerun ability and versatility as a 3 down back.
Projection: Top 15
2. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin, 6’1” 215lbs, 40 Time 4.52– Wisconsin has a history of churning out running backs, but few have reached their projected potential. Gordon has a chance to break that mold but will need the right system to do so. Gordon’s game sounds like a mirror image of DeMarco Murray’s from last season: a stout, every-down runner with a plus jump cut and vision who can get those “dirty” yards by turning a 3 yard gain into 6 or a 9 yard gain into 10. In addition, while not exactly a homerun threat, could easily translate into a 1,500 yard workhorse. The only weaknesses in his game come in the pass attack with relative inexperience in pass catching and pass protection. A groin injury that cost him the 2011 season is his only red flag. Overall, Gordon will likely go in round 1 and would take a series of events to go just right to get to Dallas at 27.
Projection: Top 25
3. Jay Ajayi, Bosie State, 6’0” 221lbs, 40 Time 4.57– Born in London and going to high school in Frisco, TX, Ajayi is a tough bowling ball of a runner. Much like his predecessor at Boise, Doug Martin, Ajayi is a quality between-the-tackles runner who is also a threat out of the backfield in the passing game. More shifty that fast, Ajayi must use his patience and vision to find the hole and resist the urge to bounce outside, though his burst to get to the edge is underrated. Red Flags on Ajayi include a 2011 arrest for stealing sweatpants (though he has matured greatly since then) and a heavy workload leading to a variety of minor injuries (though he showed the ability to play through the pain). Overall, Ajayi’s stock is rising as the need for bellcow backs have been rising. Though not a first round talent for me, Ajayi will go off the board early in the 2nd for a team looking for a #1 RB.
Projection: Early 2nd
4. Duke Johnson, Miami, 5’9” 207lbs, 40 Time 4.54 – Though a bit undersized, Duke Johnson has shown a toughness and willingness to give all he has both on the football field and off, with a tough upbringing that included his family living out of a car for a time. However, sometimes this toughness can backfire, leading to impatience and fumbling issues. Very capable in the passing game both receiving and blocking, Duke is easily a 3 down back type. Overall Duke is a slippery runner with a big play ability that can draw comparisons to LeSean McCoy or Jamal Charles if he can reach his potential with health.
Projection: Early 2nd
5. David Johnson, Northern Iowa, 6’1” 224lbs 40 Time 4.50 – When I first saw David Johnson at the Senior Bowl, I immediately thought of Eddie George. Johnson is a converted wide receiver that was massively productive at UNI with his smooth gliding style and plus pass catching ability. In addition, Johnson has an incredible build and has been quite durable but does take a bit too much punishment with his upright running style. Only big knock is his lack of a second gear to get the edge or go the distance. In total, Johnson seems like a great fit in a one-cut zone blocking scheme (see Arian Foster) where he could be an above average to elite level RB.
Projection: Mid 2nd
6. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska, 5’9” 205lbs, 40 Time 4.60 – Abdullah was a very solid lead back at Nebraska, but his best fit in the pros would be as a change-of-pace 3rd down back with big play ability much like Reggie Bush. With excellent vision and top end speed (despite a poor 40 time at the combine), Abdullah’s only weaknesses in his game revolve around his strength both in between the tackles and on pass blocking. Perhaps no other runner in this draft will have a wider variation in evaluations due to his niche roll, but he could be an explosive weapon if deployed properly.
Projection: 2nd-3rd
7. Tevin Coleman, Indiana, 5’11” 206lbs, 40 Time 4.52 – I am not as high on Coleman as many scouts as I see him as much more of a plodder than a big play threat. Coleman is a tough runner willing to take on tacklers and blitzers alike. However, he lacks much wiggle in open space and is below average in the passing game. Overall, Coleman may become a productive 2 down back in the NFL, but lacks the type of skill set scouts would find exceptional.
Projection: 3rd round
8. Mike Davis, South Carolina, 5’9” 217lbs, 40 Time 4.61 – I really like the game of Mike Davis, who is a tough runner, versatile in the passing game, a competent blocker and has above average football IQ. However, Davis’s issues are mostly with his physique. With a soft body and struggles with hamstrings and conditioning, Davis will be in need of some weight room time to reach his full potential and stay out of the trainer’s room.
Prediction: mid 3rd round
9. Javorius “Buck” Allen, USC, 6’0” 221lbs 40 Time 4.53 – Buck Allen is a jack-of-all-trades but perhaps a master of none. Allen has nice size but doesn’t really push the pile, has nice burst but doesn’t always hit the hole hard and is very solid in the passing game but can struggle with drops and playaction fakes. I want to like Allen more as he has the potential to be great, but I’m just not sure he will ever get there.
Prediction: 3rd-4th
10. Jeremy Langford, Michigan State, 6’0” 208lbs, 40 Time 4.42 – Langford really splashed on the draft scene after an impressive 40 time at the combine. On tape, Langford shows some nice vision and patience as a runner but doesn’t seem to have the “game speed” that 40 time would suggest. He does possess some slipperiness in his runs, but needs more strength in his lower body to break tackles and really must work on his pass protection in order to see real quality time on the field. In my opinion, Langford is a nice back to put into a RB stable with the hopes he can elevate his game in a few years.
Projection: 4th round
11. TJ Yeldon, Alabama – 4th round
12. David Cobb, Minnesota – 4th round
13. Karlos Williams, Florida State – 4th/5th
14. Matt Jones, Florida – 4th/5th
15. Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn – 5th round
16. Malcolm Brown, Texas – 5th round
17. Terrance Magee, LSU – 5th round
18. Malcolm Agnew, Southern Illinois – 5th/6th
19. Michael Dyer, Louisville – 5th/6th
20. Josh Robinson, Miss State – 5th/6th