Draft Nuggets 2013: Entry #16
By Jeff Bowers of www.thesportsnarrative.com
Twitter: @sportsnarrative
Trade Scenarios:
As draft day approaches, teams begin to jockey for positions and find some partners to move up or down. A few teams at the bottom wish to move up, teams near the draft tier lines might wish to move down for more picks and teams like Dallas may worry all their targets are gone by the time they pick and may want to move up or down. Against that backdrop, here’s a few of the teams rumored to want up or down in the first round.
Moving Down:
Oakland at #3 – About the only team with enough ammunition to get to #3 is Miami. The target there would be CB Dee Millner possibly. Of note, if Fisher goes at #1 over Joeckel look for the Raiders or Jags to switch gears and take an offensive tackle.
Cleveland at #6 – This has been rumored for a while as teams try to get ahead of Arizona for OT Lane Johnson. Cleveland appears interested in either CB Millner or OLB Jarvis Jones and might be able to land either later. Possible partners include San Diego, Miami and Tennessee.
Buffalo at #8 – Everyone knows Buffalo wants a QB, but rumors contend they like Nassib over Geno Smith. So look for Buffalo to try to get out for those teams seeking to jump ahead of the Jets for WR Tavon Austin. This list includes Pittsburgh, Minnesota and San Francisco.
Jets at #9 or #13 – No sooner was the Revis trade completed yesterday that speculation swirled that the Jets would trade down for one of these picks. At #9 it could be a team targeting Millner or perhaps even one of the guards or even DT Floyd if he slides. At #13 the target would likely be DT Richardson, which Atlanta is making a big push for.
San Diego at #11 – If the Chargers miss out of the top 3 tackles, they might look to move down and gain a later first and early 2nd targeting OT Watson or Fluker. Their hope is that WR Austin is
there to increase the bidding.
Pittsburgh at #17 – The Steelers could be open to trading if a lot of their targets are gone. Though it would be a bit out of character for the Steelers, an offer to get ahead of Dallas for one of the guards or DT Richardson could give them an offer they could not refuse.
Indianapolis at #24 – This might be the highest a team from round 2 could jump in to get the QB they would want. The Colts answered many of their needs in free agency and might be open to a pick in next year's draft to trade down.
Denver at #28 – Again, another team that could jump out of round 1 for a team looking for QBs. The Broncos could trade down and still get the best RB on their board.
New England at #29 – With only a handful of picks in this year's draft, the Patriots could really be looking to get out for more selections. This one seems almost a lock.
Moving Up
Tennessee at #10 – The Titans really like a number of players including Millner, Floyd and Ansah. A jump up for Millner is possible.
San Diego at #11 – The Chargers are desperate for a tackle. They could even go as high as #3 to get one.
Miami at #12 – The Dolphins are loaded with picks and are in "go for it" mode, looking to add a corner and a tackle. If the Brandon Albert deal falls apart they could be interested in one of the top 3 tackles or CB Millner.
Minnesota at #23 and #25 – The Vikings need a WR and all the top prospects have question marks. Austin is too small, Patterson is very raw, Hopkins is reported to have trashed his hotel room at the Combine and Keenan Allen has all kinds of red flags. The Vikings might try to jump up for the guy they want or DT Sylvester Williams if the DTs start flying off.
Atlanta at #30 – Atlanta is reported to be very high on DT RIchardson and have no issue putting a #1 in next year's draft to get up the board as they are going for it. By the value chart, Atlanta could get up to around pick #12 or #13 ahead of the Panthers.
San Francisco at #31 and #33 – The Niners also feel like they're close and might be looking for that one key piece. Targets include a DT, a CB or a game-changing WR like Austin. They 49ers could get as high as #14 with their late 1st and early 2nd rounders.
Draft Tiers and Value Chart:
As mentioned earlier, drafts tend to have certain “tiers” of talent. This is important because, while dropping down and getting more picks may seem like a smart strategy, if you drop down 2 full tiers of talent those extra picks may not be equal to that one very good player. For example, if Dallas were to trade with the Niners for #31 and #33, that adds up for the draft value chart (see below) but is a drop of 2 full tiers of talent and makes the likelihood of selecting a difference-making player much less. Here’s a look at the possible draft tiers and the draft value chart:
Draft Tiers:
Tier #1 – Pick #9
Tier #2 – Pick #18 to #19
Tier #3 – Pick #27 to #28
Tier #4 – Pick #47 to #50
Tier #5 – Pick #71
Tier #6 – Pick #100 (Good value tier)
Tier #7 – Pick #120
Tier #8 – Pick #140 to #144
NFL Draft Value Chart
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
Round 5
Round 6
Round 7
1
3,000
33
580
65
265
97
112
129
43
161
27
193
14.2
2
2,600
34
560
66
260
98
108
130
42
162
26.6
194
13.8
3
2,200
35
550
67
255
99
104
131
41
163
26.2
195
13.4
4
1,800
36
540
68
250
100
100
132
40
164
25.8
196
13
5
1,700
37
530
69
245
101
96
133
39.5
165
25.4
197
12.6
6
1,600
38
520
70
240
102
92
134
39
166
25
198
12.2
7
1,500
39
510
71
235
103
88
135
